Optimal Allocation of Surface Water Resources at the Provincial Level in the Uzbekistan Region of the Amudarya River Basin

Water users in the Amudarya River Basin Uzbekistan are suffering severe water use competition and uneven allocation, which seriously threatens ecosystems, as shown, for example, well-known Aral Sea catastrophe. This study explores optimized allocation schemes area at provincial level under different incoming flow levels, based on current distribution quotas among riparian nations, usually ignored related research. The optimization model of inexact two-stage stochastic programming method is used, characterized by probability distributions interval values. Results show that (1) redistributed five sectors. Livestock, industrial, municipality have highest priority, mainly exists other two sectors irrigation ecology; (2) six provinces, allocated only Bukhara Khorezm can satisfy upper bound demand; (3) ecological sector receive a guaranteed 8.237–12.354 km3; (4) high level, compared with actual distribution, total four (except ecology) reduced 3.706 km3 economic benefits increased USD 3.885B.